When a fundamentally strong business is available at 4% dividend yield, the probability that you will have both dividend and the capital gains, rather than just one or the other, is materially higher than what the market is currently pricing. You are not betting on a recovery that might not come. You are betting on a recovery that, given the quality of the business and the management’s track record, has the probability skewed in your favour. In a market oscillating violently, where growth is scarce and volatility is high, that probability edge is worth looking at.