US penalty risk on Russian oil may add USD 9-11 billion to India's import bill

India faces a potential USD 9-11 billion surge in its annual oil import bill if forced to abandon discounted Russian crude due to potential US tariffs and penalties. This shift threatens the profitability of Indian refiners and could lead to increased fiscal strain and inflation. While diversification to other sources is possible, it presents logistical, economic, and geopolitical challenges.