One city-killer 2024 YR4 asteroid, many predictions—Here’s why the impact predictions keep changing

An asteroid named 2024 YR4, measuring between 40 to 90 metres wide, has drawn global attention due to its fluctuating probability of colliding with Earth in 2032. Initially assessed at a 3.1% chance, NASA has since revised the likelihood down to 0.28% following new observations. The asteroids classification on the Torino scale—used to gauge impact threats—was briefly the highest for any known asteroid. Scientists stress that more data is needed, while past asteroid deflection missions offer hope for future interventions.