Nate Silver: Here’s What My Gut Says About the Election. But Don’t Trust Anyone’s Gut, Even Mine.

In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast. Since the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, that is more or less exactly where my model has had it. Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a question: “C’mon, Nate, what’s your gut say?” So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for...