JPMorgan Hikes Recession Odds As Tariffs Create 'A Dilemma For The Fed'

The probability of a U.S. recession has surged to its highest level in two years as JPMorgan Chase & Co. signals that President Donald Trump's trade policies could deliver a bigger shock to business sentiment, global supply chains and central bank flexibility than previously expected. In a research note published this week, JPMorgan's chief global economist Bruce Kasman said the bank now places the risk of a U.S. recession at 40%, up from 30%,...